ESTIMATIONS OF RESPONSE OF THE NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION
TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR RUSSIAN NORTHERN ECOSYSTEMS

Golubyatnikov L.L.

Ecology. Economy. Informatics.
System analysis and mathematical modeling of ecological and economic systems.
2024, issue 9, pp. 118-123.
DOI: 10.23885/2500-395Х-2024-1-9-118-123
(in Russian with English abstract)

Summary

Vegetation of the northern ecosystems plays an important role in the regulation of energy and mass exchange in the atmosphere-land surface system of Northern Eurasia. A quantitative characteristic of the intensity of atmospheric carbon dioxide sequestration by plant communities is their net primary production (NPP). Regional NPP changes in the northern ecosystems under global climate warming in the 21st century at the territory of Russia are analyzed. We used output of the climate model MPI-ESM1-2-LR developed at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (Germany). Corresponding numerical experiments are performed under the aggressive SSP1-8.5 and moderate SSP1-2.6 climatic scenarios for the 21st century. The model developed at the Laboratory of Mathematical Ecology of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Russia) is used for a determination the NPP response for the northern ecosystems of Russian to possible climate changes. This model is based on the bioclimatic scheme in which the NPP is a function of the net radiation balance and annual evapotranspiration. To determine the bioclimatic scheme we used an experimental information about annual net primary production. We have obtained the estimates for future spatial patterns and levels for possible changes of the vegetation productivity over the territory of Russia under study for global climate warming in the 21st century. The results point to a significant NPP increase for fairly extended latitude range in Russian boreal forest. At the same time, we see regional differences for the possible NPP changes in the northern ecosystems for climatic scenarios under study.