Nikita N. Moiseev

In September 1976 initiative of Academician Nikita N. Moiseev from the Computing Centre of the USSR Academy of Sciences gave start to new Laboratory of Mathematical Ecology headed by Yuri M. Svirezhev. His first pupils and co-workers were Vladimir P. Pasekov, Alexander M. Tarko, Nikolay K. Lukyanov, Dmitry O. Logofet, Dmitry A. Sarancha, Nikolay N. Timofeev, Valery N. Razzhevaikin. There was a time when introduction of mathematics into biological sciences began to spread to their new branches, in particular, ecology and genetics, and Laboratory of Mathematical Ecology - being the first scientific subdivision with such title in the USSR - took very active part in this process.

Yuri M. Svirezhev

During those years the Laboratory collaborators worked over the models of biological species co-evolution, obtained general dynamic equations of evolving populations, established adoptability boundaries for classical equations of mathematical genetics, obtained generalization of Fisher's "fundamental theorem of natural selection", formulated general variational principles of mathematical genetics, developed mathematical theory of genotypical polymorphism in natural populations. These explorations have allowed them to explain results of numerous genetic experiments and observations on genotypic dynamics of real populations. Stability theory for biological communities as one of most important parts of mathematical ecology was developed for mathematical models of interacting biological species. Accurate derivation of general equations of mathematical ecology based on mass and energy conservation laws made possible to establish applicability frames for the classical Lotka-Volterra equations in modeling biological communities. Accurate mathematical basis and new formulation of McArtur's "Principle of dense packing" for species in ecological niche space gave opportunity to make important estimates on perspectives for new species to invade into competing communities. Published in 1978 the monograph "Stability of Biological Communities" (English translation issued in 1983) by Yu.M. Svirezhev and D.O. Logofet rapidly became classic in mathematical ecology.

In those years the Laboratory actively started a research aimed to develop methods of mathematical modeling global biosphere processes and studying conditions of co-evolution for human society and environment. The attempt was undertaken to formalize conceptions of the classical Russian naturalist's school in which a human Individual was an integral part of the Biosphere, and social evolution appeared as co-evolution of Human and Biosphere. This study provided a new approach allowing to formalize description of ecological processes at global level and developed a system of simulation models for biosphere processes. Now this system is well-known as Moscow Biosphere Model. The proposed approach determined directions of global Earth system modeling for a long time.

In 1979 an international scientific project "Ecosystem Dynamics in Freshwater Wetlands and Shallow Water Bodies" was initiated by Academician Anatoly A. Dorodnitsyn under the aegis of SCOPE (Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment). Scientific supervision was carried out by outstanding system's ecologists and ecological modelers Prof. Bernard C. Patten (USA) and Sven E. Jorgensen (Denmark) while practical realization of such enormous scaled project entirely fell on the Laboratory collaborators and PhD students of Yu.M. Svirezhev. In particular, Dmitry O. Logofet became the project director and was the Head of corresponding structural unit at the Centre for International Projects of USSR State Committee for Science and Technology. This project covered a wide range of ecological problems in wetlands and contributed to the progress of knowledge about wetland ecosystems structure and functioning. For the first time in the world practice the Laboratory collaborators designed a nonlinear model of combined carbon-nitrogen cycles in the local mesotrophic bog ecosystem which allowed for a phytocenosis structure and competition for nutrients supply. The simulation model helped to make quantitative estimates for such characteristics of bog hydrological regime as average duration of spring underflooding of forest stand roots, probability of their underflooding during the whole vegetation period, magnitudes of water table oscillations. The model allowed one to estimate annual changes of hydrological conditions under phytocenosis dynamics. Also formation of a hummock-ridge complex (a regular structure of hummocks and ridges at the bog surface) was reproduced for the first time as an appearance of a dissipative structure in reaction-diffusion equations. In this spatially distributed model essential features of oligotrophic bog dynamics were managed to reproduce: forming a cupola and dependence of relief on a linear size of the bog.

In early 1980s a new young researchers appeared in the Laboratory: Alexei Voinov, Mikhail Smirnov, Mikhail Semenov, Petr Raczko. They were engaged in a plenty of fascinating scientific problems: A. Voinov was interested in modeling freshwater ecosystems, M. Smirnov - in genetics, M. Semenov - in agroecosystems simulation, P. Raczko - in forest stand dynamics. A whole set of books was published: "Modelling of Global Biosphere Processes" by V. Krapivin, Yu. Svirezhev, A. Tarko, "Models of Evolutionary Genetics" by Yu. Svirezhev, V. Pasekov etc.

One of the most priority problems during those years for the international scientific community was an assessment of consequences of nuclear war as well as a wide spreading of information about it for both world governments and human communities. Computing Centre of the Soviet Academy of Sciences as a whole and Laboratory of Mathematical Ecology took a very active part in this activities. On the basis of available physical, chemical and biological (especially, radio-biological) information and data the research group headed by Prof. Yu.M. Svirezhev worked out a model approach giving quantitative estimates of ecological consequences of global nuclear conflict in the long run. Final results obtained by this group were published in English by Computing Centre in 1985 in the book "Ecological and Demographic Consequences of the Nuclear War" which rapidly became well-known in the world and then was translated into Russian, Spanish and German. Much of its materials were included into the famous two-volume issue by SCOPE named as "Consequences of a Nuclear War for the Environment".

In 1985 the Laboratory appeared in the centre of typical for the "perestroika" times public movement protested against the plan for transfer of fraction of Northern rivers run-off to the South (in everyday language, simply "rivers transfer" ). Yu.M. Svirezhev became a head of informal group which posed a problem to show falseness of models and forecasts constituted a "scientific basis of the project", in particular, prognosis for the Caspian Sea level dynamics. Certainly, almost all the Laboratory participated in work of this group. These activities have played an important part in stopping the works on rivers run-off transfer.

About this time contacts with physicians engaged in space projects at the Institute of Medical and Biological Problems began to be actively developed. They resulted in performing of the Laboratory into Department of Mathematical Modeling in Ecology and Medicine. Very close relations appeared between the new Department and Informational and Computing Centre of this Institute. New technologies of medical information processing and new approaches to forecasting a state of human health in space flights were introduced into work of Informational and Computing Centre.

In the late 1980s former PhD students of the Computing Centre Georgii Alexandrov, Konstantin Chevelev, Leonid Golubyatnikov, as well as a graduate from the Moscow Institute of Transport Engineers Sergey Venevsky, came to the Department. During those years some new modeling approaches were developed both for solving problems of spreading heterogeneities in "ecologically active media" (outbreaks of forest and agricultural insects, epidemics) and in a problem of discrete structure appearance as a result of continuous interactions between ecosystem components. Proposed eco-energetic analysis of agro-ecosystems allowed one to compare ecological effectiveness of their different types and agricultural systems at the regional level. The method was used for analyzing agriculture of Hungary and served as a basis for a conception of "adaptive agriculture" suggested together with Hungarian scientists. Results of the Department works in the middle 1980s are reflected in Yu.M. Svirezhev's monograph "Nonlinear Waves, Dissipative Structures and Catastrophes in Ecology" (1987).

When 1990s, years of cardinal political and economic reforms in Russia, started, the Department has disrupted, and one of its parts headed by Yu.M. Svirezhev removed to the Institute of Atmospheric Physics and organized there a Laboratory of Mathematical Ecology while the rest collaborators stayed at the Computing Centre scattering about different departments. At the new workplace the Laboratory co-workers took an active part in studies under State science-technological programs "Ecological Security of Russia", "Ecology of Russia", "Global Change of Natural Environment and Climate". In 1992 Yu.M. Svirezhev was invited to be the Head for Department of Systems Analysis at Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (Germany). Acting chief became at first K.V. Chevelev and then since 1994 L.L. Golubyatnikov soon approved by Scientific Council as the Head. Those years were definitely hard for our group: financing of Russian projects practically stopped, some collaborators left for working abroad, talented students preferred to make business rather than science… Nevertheless, the Laboratory remained standing and saved its scientific potential. In the years some new works were carried out: methodology and quantitative estimate of ecological risk at local and regional levels provided high degree of uncertainty, model of estimating the total carbon exchange flux for natural terrestrial ecosystems (i.e., difference between carbon input in the net primary production and its emission from dead organic matter and soils under biotic and abiotic factors) which allows to distinguish ecosystems as carbon sources and sinks and to determine their intensity. Also worked out was a new theory of simplest dynamic model of the global vegetation pattern. New type of stochastic Markov chain models of successions was created in which probabilities of transitions between states are not constant depending on climate-sensible environmental factors. These factors, in turn, depend on time due to accepted climate change scenarios. Models of that type are able to describe changes of vegetation cover during a succession process against a background of climate fluctuations and anthropogenic perturbations of ecosystems.

In the beginning of the new century Laboratory has been replenished with young colleagues Olga Feldman, Nikolay Zavalishin, Iya Klochkova. Since 2002 the Laboratory has been led by the deputy director of the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics Alexander S. Ginzburg. At present our Laboratory works in the following directions: mathematical models of carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, reactions of plant canopy to possible climate changes, matrix models of age-stage-structured plant populations, eco-energetic analysis of agro-ecosystems, stability and bifurcations in dynamic compartment models for ecosystems, dynamic models of global vegetation pattern and its reaction to climate change and human activities, Markov chain models of vegetation cover successions.