Project dates        2012–2013

Information

2012:
Coupled scheme of the carbon cycle and the processes of heat and moisture transport in the soil is developed by the participants of the project. The scheme is validated and intensity of methane emission by wetlands in the XX century is calculated. Database of initial values and input parameters for the models of carbon cycle and processes of heat and moisture transport in the soil was created. Regional methane flux from the surface of floodplain lakes in the tundra zone of Western Siberia on the basis of the field measurements was analyzed by the participants of the project. The estimated methane flux from the lake surface to the atmosphere in the warm season in the Arctic tundra is found to be about 0.5 KtCH4, in typical tundra 2.9 KtCH4, in southern tundra 8.5 KtCH4. Possible changes in the main characteristics of the permafrost zone of the region under consideration by the end of the XXI century under various scenarios of anthropogenic impact are estimated. The increase of the depth of the seasonal thawing permafrost layer in Western Siberia was found. Permafrost regime change from seasonal thawing to seasonal freezing is expected in the southern part of the Western Siberia by the end of the XXI century.

Publications

Arzhanov M.M., Eliseev A.V., Mokhov I.I.
Влияние климатических изменений над сушей внетропических широт на динамику многолетнемерзлых грунтов при сценариях RCP в XXI веке по расчетам с глобальной климатической моделью ИФА РАН. Метеорология и гидрология. 2013. [in press].

Melton J.R., Wania R., Hodson E.L., Poulter B., Ringeval B., Spahni R., Bohn T., Avis C.A., Beerling D.J., Chen G., Eliseev A.V., Denisov S.N., Hopcroft P.O., Lettenmaier D.P., Riley W.J., Singarayer J.S., Subin Z.M., Tian H., Zurcher S., Brovkin V., van Bodegom P.M., Kleinen T., Yu Z.C., Kaplan J.O.
Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP). Biogeosciences. 2013. V. 10. pp.753-788.

Golubyatnikov L.L., Kazantsev V.S.
Вклад тундровых озёр Западной Сибири в метановый бюджет атмосферы. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2013. [in press].

Eliseev A.V., Demchenko P.F., Arzhanov M.M., Mokhov I.I.
Гистерезис зависимости площади приповерхностной вечной мерзлоты от глобальной температуры. Доклады Академии наук. 2012. Т.444. N.4. C.444-447.

Denisov S.N., Eliseev A.V., Mokhov I.I.
Изменения климата в глобальной модели ИФА РАН с учетом взаимодействия с метановым циклом при антропогенных сценариях семейства RCP. Метеорология и гидрология. 2013 [in press].

Denisov S.N.
Estimations of hydrate stability in Baikal. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling /Cote J. WMO C.P. N. 2300. Geneva: World Climate Research Programme. 2012. pp. 7.05-7.06.

Arzhanov M.M.
Soil subsidence in the 21st century simulated using anthropogenic climate change scenarios. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling /Cote J. WMO C.P. N.2300. Geneva: World Climate Research Programme. 2012. P.7-03.

Golubyatnikov L.L., Kazantsev V.S.
Estimation of methane emission from tundra lakes in West Siberia. Proceedings of XL-th Scientific Conference "Mathematical modeling and rational land use problems" (Dyurso, September 3-8), Rostov-on-Don: SFU, p. 51-55 (in Russian).

Arzhanov M.M.
Моделирование термодинамического режима криолитозоны России в XX веке. Proceedings of XL-th Scientific Conference "Mathematical modeling and rational land use problems" (Dyurso, September 3-8), Rostov-on-Don: SFU, p. 97-101 (in Russian).

Zavalishin N.N.
Биотический круговорот в лесных и болотных экосистемах бореальной и лесостепной зон Европейской территории России и Западной Сибири при изменении климата. Selected and reviewed papers presented at the International Conference on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2012 (24 June - 2 July 2012, Irkutsk, Russia. Tomsk: SNTI, p.130-132 (in Russian).

Zavalishin N.N.
Методы моделирования динамики биотического круговорота в наземных экосистемах лесной и лесостепной зон Евразии. Proceedings of XL-th Scientific Conference "Mathematical modeling and rational land use problems" (Dyurso, September 3-8), Rostov-on-Don: SFU, p. 64-66 (in Russian).

Arzhanov M.M.
Влияние изменения климата на динамику основных характеристик криолитозоны в XXI веке. Abstracts of XVI International Conference "Atmosphere. Atmospheric electricity. Climatic effects". Zvenigorod. 2012. P.83 (in Russian).

Project participants

Laboratory of Mathematical Ecology (IAP RAS):
Leonid L. Golubyatnikov
Nikolay N. Zavalishin
Vladimir S. Kazantsev

Laboratory of Climate Theory (IAP RAS):
Maxim M. Arzhanov
Sergey N. Denisov

Yugra State University:
Eugeny A. Zarov

Tomsk State University:
Sergey V. Loyko
Georgy I. Istigechev