Project dates        2012–2014

Information

2012:
The database on the spatial distribution of organic carbon and nitrogen in the permafrost area of the Northern Hemisphere is formed. Verification of the developed dynamic models of biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial ecosystems and heat-moisture transfer in soil was carried out. Carbon and nitrogen cycle models adequately reproduce exchange of these elements in terrestrial ecosystems, and able to demonstrate changes in the intensities of flows and stocks of carbon and nitrogen in ecosystems under changing climate. The model of heat-moisture transfer based on the Stefan problem is used to calculate the thermal and hydrological soil regime. Using the model of heat-moisture transfer, changes in thermal and hydrological soil characteristics and active layer dynamics in 21st century forced by the anthropogenic scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 are simulated. Based on the spatial distribution of soil carbon, nitrogen and modeling results of the dynamics of the active layer the changes of the carbon and nitrogen pools due to the permafrost degradation in 21st century were obtained.

Publications

Arzhanov M.M.
Soil subsidence in the 21st century simulated using anthropogenic climate change scenarios. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling, WMO, N2300. 2012. Geneva: World Climate Research Programme, p.7-03.

Denisov S.N.
Estimations of hydrate stability in Baikal. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling, WMO, N2300. 2012. Geneva: World Climate Research Programme, p.7.05-7.06.

Golubyatnikov L.L., Kazantsev V.S.
Estimation of methane emission from tundra lakes in Western Siberia. Proceedings of the 40-th Scientific Conference "Mathematical modeling and rational land use problems" (Dyurso, September 3-8). 2012. Rostov-on-Don: SFU, p. 51-55 (in Russian).

Zavalishin N.N.
Climate change and the biotic cycle in forest and peatland ecosystems for boreal and forest-steppe zones of European Russia and West Siberia Selected and reviewed papers presented at the International Conference on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2012 (24 June - 2 July 2012, Irkutsk, Russia). 2012. Tomsk: SNTI, pp. 130-132.

Zavalishin N.N.
Modelling methods for the biotic cycle in the terrestrial ecosystems of forest and forest-steppe zones of Eurasia. Proceedings of the 40-th Scientific Conference "Mathematical modeling and rational land use problems" (Dyurso, September 3-8). 2012. Rostov-on-Don: SFU, p. 64-66 (in Russian).

Arzhanov M.M., Denisov S.N., Kazantsev V.S.
Characteristics of permafrost, total organic carbon and nitrogen distribution in Northern Eurasia. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling. A. Zadra (ed.). Geneva: WCRP. 2013. WCRP Report No.10/2013. P.07.3-4.

Denisov S.N., Kazantsev V.S., Arzhanov M.M.
Changes in wetland methane emissions in the IAP RAS global model under RCP anthropogenic scenarios. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling. A. Zadra (ed.). Geneva: WCRP. 2013. WCRP Report No.10/2013. P.07.9-10.

Kazantsev V.S., Denisov S.N., Arzhanov M.M.
Systematization of statement and carrying out of instrumental measurements of greenhouse gases in the tasks of forecasting with use of mathematical models. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling. Zadra A. WCRP . Geneva. 2013. Report No.10/2013. P.07.11-12.

Zavalishin N.N.
Biotic turnover in tundra, forest and peatland ecosystems in permafrost regions of the Nothern Euroasia under climate change. ISEM-2013, Abstracts of the Conference “Ecological Modelling for Ecosystem Sustainability”, Toulouse, France. 2013. p.24.

Kazantsev V.S., Zarov E.A., Loiko S.V., Arzhanov M.M., Golubyatnikov L.L., Denisov S.N., Zavalishin N.N.
Instrumental measurements of methane fluxes and organic matter stocks in tundra ecosystems of permafrost. Abstracts of 17-th All-Russian Conference "Atmosphere. Atmospheric electricity. Climatic processes" (September 23-25, 2013, Niznii Novgorod). 2013. N.Novgorod: Institute of Applied Physics RAS, pp. 36.

Golubyatnikov, L.L., Mokhov, I.I., and A.V. Eliseev
Nitrogen cycle in the earth climatic system and its modeling. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2013. Vol.49. N.3. P. 229-243.

Golubyatnikov, L.L., and V.S. Kazantsev
Contribution of tundra lakes in western Siberia to the atmospheric methane budget. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2013.Vol.49. N.4. P. 395-403.

Project participants

Laboratory of Mathematical Ecology (IAP RAS):
Leonid L. Golubyatnikov
Nikolay N. Zavalishin
Vladimir S. Kazantsev

Laboratory of Climate Theory (IAP RAS):
Maxim M. Arzhanov
Sergey N. Denisov

Yugra State University:
Eugeny A. Zarov