A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Russian Academy of Sciences

Project dates        2005–2007

Information

Possible changes of zonal ecosystem areas for the Russian plain territories under increase of the annual global near-surface temperature in 1°C are estimated using the scenario given by the IAP RAS climate model. For estimating the reaction of ecosystem areas to climatic changes, data on the changes of the net primary production of vegetation cover are used. Obtained results serve as a basis for distinguishing the ecosystems most sensitive to the climate change.

Experimental materials as well as space satellite data allow to analyze interdependencies between the normalized difference vegetation index and such structural characteristics of vegetation as its aboveground biomass and aboveground net primary production. Latitude distributions of the vegetation index and structural magnitudes under consideration do not coincide having a form of saturation functions. The normalized difference vegetation index is shown not to be an indicator for values of the aboveground net primary production and aboveground phytomass for plain territories of the European Russia and Western Siberia.

Specified is a climatic parameterization of the vegetative production model developed by participants of the project earlier. This model is founded on the bioclimatic scheme establishing the dependence of biological primary production on radiation balance and evapotranspiration. Modification of the model decreases deviations of modelling values of ecosystem primary production from experimentally measured data.

A dynamic model of vegetation pattern is developed. It combines both deterministic and probabilistic approaches to description of interactions between terrestrial vegetation types. In the model, it is assumed that any terrestrial region may be covered either by wooden vegetation or by herbacious vegegation or may represent a bare ground. The model is calibrated using climatic and geobotanic data. Stationary states are found together with their stability boundaries. Based on this model a projection of vegetation changes in Russia is obtained using the IAP RAS climate model output data as atmospheric forcing.

First version of a terrestrial carbon cycle model is worked out on the basis of a continuous phytomass change in time. The model does not employ the steady state hypothesis for preindustrial local carbon cycle. In the models of this type, organic matter moves from one compartment to another during its life cycle (say, from living matter to the dead one). In the model, organic matter stock changes are described via changes of phytomass age. This approach is a novel feature of the model. The suggested model enables one to characterize terrestrial ecosystems as carbon sources or carbon sinks and to evaluate their intensity.

A conceptual scheme connecting the vegetative production model with the dynamic model of vegetation pattern is developed. The dynamic model of vegetation pattern is forced by atmospheric temperature and precipitation. Based on these variables, input parameters of the vegetative production model (e.g., radiative balance and total evaporation) are determined. Radiative balance is related to the sum of effective temperatures, i.e., the annual sum of daily mean surface temperatures no lower than 10°C. Potential evaporation is related to the annual sum of daily mean surface temperatures no lower than 0°C. Both relationships are nonlinear. The derived relationship between the potential evaporation and the annual sum of positive temperatures, in addition, is non-unique over the Russian territory. However, Russian territory can be subdivided into regions where such relationship is unique.

Comparison of climate models of the intermediate complexity, including the IAP RAS climate model, is carried out for modern climate and in experiments for equilibrium change and transitive growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The IAP RAS climate model is shown the adequately description of the modern climate regime and its sensitivity to the atmospheric carbon increase.

The IAP RAS climate model is extended by the globally averaged carbon cycle module. For industrial period, the coupled model realistically reproduces carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial ecosystems. Interaction of climate and the global carbon cycle results in increase of the model temperature sensitivity to the carbon dioxide atmospheric emissions. Temporal variations of the feedback parameter between climate and carbon cycle are estimated for 20th-21st centuries. This parameter is non-monotonic in time.

Ensemble simulations employing the IAP RAS climate model are performed to estimate sensitivity of the climate-carbon cycle feedback characteristics. In the simulations the parameters controlling terrestrial carbon cycle and basic climate sensitivity of the model are varied. Large uncertainty for characteristics of the climate-carbon cycle feedback is discovered. An estimation of uncertainty of future changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide content, respective radiative forcing, and characteristics of the climate-carbon cycle feedback in an ensemble simulation with the IAP RAS CM is carried out. A constructed ensemble is analyzed employing Bayesian statistics which allows one to narrow the corresponding range of uncertainty. It is shown that carbon dioxide exchange between the atmosphere and ocean constrains the modelled carbon cycle more efficiently in comparison to the constrains due to atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystems exchange.

An eventual saturation of the climate-carbon cycle feedback found earlier in simulations with the IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity is studied employing a conceptual model. It is shown that physical reason for this saturation is due to weak, logarithmic dependence of greenhouse radiative forcing on carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere.

Publications

Golubyatnikov, L.L. and E.A. Denisenko
Interrelation between the Vegetation Index and the Climatic Parameters and Structural Characteristics of Vegetation Cover.   Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2006, Vol. 42, 4, pp. 484-496.

Venevsky S., Maksyutov S.
SEVER: A modification of LPJ global dynamic vegetation model for daily time step and parallel computation. Environmental Modelling and Software. 2007, 22, pp. 104-109.

Mokhov I.I., Eliseev A.V., Karpenko A.A.
Чувствительность к антропогенным воздействиям глобальной климатической модели ИФА РАН с интерактивным углеродным циклом.  . Доклады Академии наук. 2006, т. 407, № 3, pp. 400-404.

Golubyatnikov, L.L., Zavalishin, N.N.
Dynamics of the vegetation pattern in Russia under the climate change: a "forest-grass" model with climatic calibration. Proceedings of the Fifth European Conference on Ecological Modelling – ECEM 2005 (Pushchino, September 19-23). Pushchino: IPBPSS RAN, p.62-63.

Petoukhov V., Claussen M., Berger A., Crucifix M., Eby M., Eliseev A.V., Fichefet T., Ganopolski A., Goosse H., Kamenkovich I., Mokhov I.I., Montoya M., Mysak L.A., Sokolov A., Stone P., Wang Z., Weaver A.J.
EMIC Intercomparison Project (EMIP-CO2): comparative analysis of EMIC simulations of climate, and of equilibrium and transient responses to atmospheric CO2 doubling. Climate Dynamics. 2005, V. 25, 4, pp. 363-385.

Golubyatnikov, L.L. and E.A. Denisenko
Estimates of the zonal plant change in Russia under global warm. Abstracts of XXXIII School "Mathematical modeling and rational land use problems" (Dyurso, September 12-17). 2005. Rostov-on-Don, NCSC HS, pp. 25-27.

Zavalishin, N.N. and L.L. Golubyatnikov
Dynamics of vegetation in Russia under the climate change by the probabilistic-deterministic model. Abstracts of 10-th All-Russian Conference "Atmosphere, Climatic effects, Atmospheric electricity". 2006. Moscow, Max-Press, pp. 10-11.

Golubyatnikov, L.L.
Phytometric Characteristics of the Plant Cover, the Climatic Parameters and the Vegetation Index NDVI. Abstracts of XXXIV School "Mathematical modeling and rational land use problems" (Dyurso, September 11-16). 2006. Rostov-on-Don, NCSC HS, pp. 27-28.

Golubyatnikov, L.L. and E.A. Denisenko
Model Estimates of Climate Change Impact on the Vegetation Habitats (Plain Territories of Russia Case Study). Abstracts of the ESSP OSP Global Environmental Change: Regional Challenges. Beijing, Chana, November, 9-12, 2006, p.94-95.

Zavalishin N.N.
Modelling dynamics of a regional vegetation pattern under the climate change: deterministic approach based on the probabilistic scheme. Abstracts of the ESSP OSP Global Environmental Change: Regional Challenges. Beijing, Chana, November, 9-12, 2006, p.95-96.

Eliseev A.V., Mokhov I.I.
Carbon cycle-climate feedback sensitivity to parameter changes of a zero-dimensional terrestrial carbon cycle scheme in a climate model of intermediate complexity. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2007, V. 89. № 1-2, pp. 9-24.

Eliseev A.V., Mokhov I.I., Karpenko A.A.
Вариации климата и углеродного цикла в XX-XXI веках в модели промежуточной сложности. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2007. Vol. 43, № 1, pp. .

Golubyatnikov, L.L. and E.A. Denisenko
Model Estimates of Climate Change Impact on Habitats of Zonal Vegetation for the Plain Territories of Russia.   Biology Bulletin, 2007, Vol. 34, 2, pp. 170-184.

Golubyatnikov L.L., Denisenko E.A.
Climate Change Impact on the Vegetation Habitats in Russia. Abstracts of the European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2007. Vienna, Austria, April, 15-20, Vol.9, 05636, 2007.

Golubyatnikov L.L.
Terrestrial Life-Cycle Model of Carbon Exchange. Abstracts of EcoSummit 2007. Beijing, China, May 22-27, 2007, p.100-101.

Golubyatnikov, L.L.
Testing of natural ecosystems of European Russia as carbon sources and sinks. Abstracts of III International Conference "Emission and sink of greenhouse gases on the Northern Eurasia territory" (Pushchino, June, 4-8). Pushchino: IPBPSS RAN, p. 21.

Golubyatnikov, L.L. and E.A. Denisenko
Dependence of the vegetation index NDVI on the climatic parameters and phytometric characteristics of vegetation. XIV International Symposium "Atmospheric and ocean optics. Atmospheric physics" (June 24-30, 2007, Buryatiya). Ulan-Ude: SB RAS, 2007, pp. 135-136.

Golubyatnikov, L.L.
Evaluation of the functioning natural ecosystems on basis of "demographical" carbon cycle model. Abstracts of 35-th School "Mathematical modeling and rational land use problems" (Dyurso, September 10-15). 2007. Rostov-on-Don, NCSC HS, p. 24.

Mokhov I.I., Eliseev A.V., Karpenko A.A.
Decadal-to-centennial scale climate-carbon cycle interactions from global climate models simulations forced by anthropogenic emissions. Climate Change Reseacrh Progress. 2008, Hauppauge, NY: Nova Sci. Publ.

Golubyatnikov L.L., Svirezhev Yu.M.
Life-cycle model of terrestrial carbon exchange. Ecological Modelling. 2008.

Eliseev A.V., Mokhov I.I.
Eventual saturation of the climate-carbon cycle feedback studied with a conceptual model. Ecological Modelling,2008.

Zavalishin, N.N. and L.L. Golubyatnikov
Research of the vegetation response to climate change by means of the dynamic model with three vegetation type. Abstracts of 11-th All-Russian Conference "Atmosphere. Atmospheric electricity. Climatic effects" (May 15-17, 2007, Niznii Novgorod). 2007. Institute of Applied Physics RAS, N.Novgorod, pp. 55-56.

Zavalishin N.N.
Vegetation pattern dynamics in Nothern Eurasia under the climate change and its interaction with the regional carbon cycle. XIV International Symposium "Atmospheric and ocean optics. Atmospheric physics" (June 24-30, 2007, Buryatiya). Ulan-Ude: SB RAS, 2007, с. 135.

Zavalishin, N.N. and L.L. Golubyatnikov
Estimation of the effect of climatic changes on carbon sequestration in Russia's vegetation. Abstracts of III International Conference "Emission and sink of greenhouse gases on the Northern Eurasia territory" (Pushchino, June, 4-8). Pushchino: IPBPSS RAN, p. 32.

Project participants

Laboratory of Mathematical Ecology (IAP RAS):
Leonid L. Golubyatnikov
Elizaveta A. Denisenko
Nikolay N. Zavalishin
Iya N. Belova
Sergey V. Venevsky

Laboratory of Climate Theory (IAP RAS):
Alexey V. Eliseev