Лаборатория Математической Экологии
| ENGLISH Сотрудники История Проекты Публикации
|
CARBON SINK FUNCTION OF TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS: A MATHEMATICAL METHOD FOR MODELLING Leonid L. Goloubiatnikov
Аннотация The subject of this research is to develop a tool for evaluating the risk of failure in creating a long-term carbon sink by means of afforestation or reforestation. This suggests a study of inter-annual variations of climate and statistical characterization of departures in monthly precipitation and mean temperature as the stressors of the sink functioning. The UEA/CRU historical climate data covering the time period from 1901 to 1995 years with 0.5°x0.5° spatial resolution were used in this study. Presented is elaboration of random number generator whose output resembles real data on interannual variations of climate. The generator contains a stochastic weather model based on a new approach to weather data analysis. The model is calibrated and applied for a terrestrial area as a case study. It gives a statistically adequate precipitation-temperature prognosis for any interval in months or years.
|